A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
